tibetan plateau temperature

Z., and Kirtman, B. Previous studies also selected sites higher than 2,000 m. For example, Su et al. The present study aims to explore the evolving relationship of TPST–SCSSMP by employing a stepwise regression model to exclude the influence of these other factors. Since the normalized partial regression coefficient between TPST and SCSSMP is considered to be an isolated statistical relationship between them, TPST and other meteorological elements (VIMF, OLR et al.) Evidence for a weakening relationship between interannual temperature variability and northern vegetation activity. Our results suggest that in a changing climate, we should be cautious when using predictions with interdecadal variations (Piao et al., 2014; Zhang et al., 2019). 116:D19121. Quaternary Research 66 , … Let. Fan, Y., Fan, K., Xu, Z., and Li, S. (2018). Influence of thermodynamic soil and vegetation parameterizations on the simulation of soil temperature states and surface fluxes by the Noah LSM over a Tibetan plateau site. The purple boxed areas represent the South China Sea. It was hardly explored the region that higher than 5,000 m above sea level (Lawrimore et al., 2011), and to obtain suitable sample sizes for Tibetan Plateau. doi: 10.1023/A:1005380714349. From May to October is the best time for sightseeing in Tibet, when the weather is not very cold, averaging above 10°C (50°F). Res. To further explore the changes in the convection motion after the interdecadal variation of the TPST, we study the changes in the TPST–OLR relationship to find the changes of the convection conditions. The warmer weather and brighter days mean that the weather is ideal for touring around the sights of the capital and the outlying areas, visiting monasteries and Dzongs, and learning more about the unique architecture and people of this high-altitude region. Large evidences show that variations in Tibetan Plateau summer surface temperature (TPST) could greatly affect the interannual and interdecadal variations in the South China Sea summer monsoon by the records (Ye et al., 1957; Ye and Gao, 1979, 1992; Ding, 1992; Yanai et al., 1992; Ye and Wu, 1998; Xu et al., 2002, 2010, 2015, 2018; Zhao et al., 2003; Duan and Wu, 2005, 2008; Lu et al., 2005; Zhou et al., 2009; Duan et al., 2011, 2012, 2013; Liu et al., 2012; Wu et al., 2012a,b, 2014; Boos and Kuang, 2013). Phys. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aau8932, Zhang, Y., Li, T., and Wang, B. Part I: Thermal adaptation and overshooting (in Chinese). The dashed lines represent the mean TPST for 1980–1994 and 1998–2016, respectively. In this study, we use it to select predictive variables to construct a multiple regression model. 59, 5–31. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00208.1, Beniston, M. (2003). title = "Estimation of land surface temperature over the Tibetan Plateau using AVHRR and MODIS data", keywords = "ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE", author = "Lei Zhong and … F test is used to test the significance of the regression equation. 121:476. doi: 10.1002/2015JD023476, Lawrimore, J., Menne, M., Gleason, B., Williams, C., Wuertz, D., Vose, R., et al. The role of the heat source of the Tibetan Plateau in the general circulation. 115, D02110. It should be noted that similar results are also captured in other moving average window lengths (11 years and 15 years) and small change the region (100-135°E, 0-20°N; 100-135°E, 0-22°N;100-140°E, 5-20°N; 100-145°E, 0-22°N; not showed). The purple boxed areas represent the South China Sea. Si and Ding (2013) suggested that the relationship between the Tibetan Plateau winter snow and the SCSSMP changed in 1999. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. Theo. Red dashed lines represent wave-like structures. The regional climate of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) was simulated by dynamically downscaling reanalysis data and the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) and comparing trends of temperature and precipitation with gridded observations. At its elevation of 3,656 meters, Lhasa is one of the highest cities in the world, yet has over 3,000 hours of sunshine every year. The annual average temperature is 2 ℃, the average temperature of the warmest month is 10-18 ℃, the average temperature of the coldest month is - 10 ℃ While most trends are local in nature, there are general basinwide patterns. At 3,800 meters above sea level, Shigatse is only a little higher in altitude than Lhasa, but has a much harsher climate than the Tibetan capital. When to come is entirely up to you, and the best time for any trip to Tibet depends largely on what you want to see and where you want to go. Appl. Hydrometeor J. 5, 1183–1195. The Mann–Kendall method is also employed to investigate whether a shift occurred in the temperature on the eastern Tibetan Plateau. The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. Note that the last variable adds into the model, it cannot be deleted immediately. 110, 499-508. doi: 10.1007/s00704-012-0687-x, Pepin, N., Bradley, R. S., and Diaz, H. F. (2015). At Changtang, the average altitude of the plateau is more than 16,000 feet, and the winter temperatures here drop down to about -40 degrees Celsius. We therefore choose the WNPSH as the first predictor. Lhasa sees a lot more sunshine in May, and it is an ideal time to trek around the Mount Kailash Kora. Climate - Tibet Average weather, temperature, rainfall, when to go, what to pack Redirect note. For example, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) together with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) leaded to an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over the western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) that persisted from the ENSO mature winter to the ENSO decaying summer, strengthening (weakening) the SCSSMP (Wu et al., 2003; Fan et al., 2018). (2013). For many people, summer is the best time to go to Tibet for sightseeing tours. Recommended Tibet Train Small Group Tours. Applied Regression Analysis. Red solid line represents the Tibetan Plateau. In this study, the spatiotemporal distributions of monthly and annual temperature minima (T min) and maxima (T max), extreme T min and T max, the highest (lowest) T min (T max), frost day (FD), icing day (ID), summer day (SD) and tropical night (TR) at 112 stations and over the ten large river basins on the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings (TPS) during 1963–2015 are examined. The trends exceeded 0.5°C/decade are all distributed over the southwest and northeast sides of the Tibetan Plateau. The year of abrupt change in TPST may occur either in 1995 (Figure 3D), 1996 (Figure 3B), or 1997 (Figures 3C,E), depending on the dataset, being 1996 in the observation station, 1995 in the ERA5, but 1997 in the JRA55 and ERA–Interim. doi: 10.1029/2011JD016187, Lee, S, Seo, Y., and Ha, K. (2013). Observations and process‐based models have both shown that climate warming has resulted in an increase in vegetation greenness on the Tibetan Plateau in recent decades. The Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) dataset is also used. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00587.1, Song, F., and Zhou, T. (2015). Table 2. (1998). The only suggestion is that it is hard to get a Tibet train ticket in summer holiday, especially from July to August, and from late September to early October, when it is the peak season for domestic tourists traveling to Tibet. Firstly, we employ it to select the significant predictive variables from global warming, ENSO, WNPSH, PDO, and AMO. As a result, we stop adding variables. Inter-decadal variation of the summer precipitation in China and its association with decreasing Asian summer monsoon. Picking out the main factors affected SCSSM precipitation by using stepwise regression method. Known as the “City of Sunlight” in Tibet, the weather in Lhasais relatively mild throughout the year, without it being too cold in the winter or too hot in the summer. Ohmura, A. (2019) using the output of 30 models from CMIP5 provided further evidences that the enhanced latent heating maybe substantially increased precipitation over the southeastern TP. J. Clim. Everest Base Camp has a typical plateau monsoon climate, with both wet and dry seasons. This is naturally the busiest travel time in Tibet, when people come for the warmer weather and higher oxygen content. Shading indicates significant differences above the 90% confidence level based on the Student's t–test. The Mann–Kendall (M–K) trend test and Theil–Sen estimator are both used to check the reliability of trend. Far out in the west of Tibet lies the region around the famous Mount Everest, the highest mountain in the world. Since most of the stations are located in the eastern Tibetan Plateau (25°−40°N, 90°−105°E) except for six stations located outside the region, those concentrated in the east areas are selected to represent the … Insensitivity of the Summer South Asian High Intensity to a Warming Tibetan Plateau in Modern Reanalysis Datasets. These two seasons make trekking in Tibet an absolute delight, and there is no better time to take the trek to Mount Everest or trek the kora route around Mount Kailash. Hsu and Liu (2003) further examined that he TP heating might impact the zonally elongated rainfall (Meiyu front) but not be the only dominant forcing. The Meteorology of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau. 16, 3742-3758. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3742.EOERAI>2.0.CO;2, Xu, L., Xu, L., and He, S. (2018). ERA5 (the fifth generation of European Centre for Medium–Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate) is also used, which is a high-resolution dataset from 1950 to present (Malardel et al., 2015). Clim. Temperature changes at stations higher than 2,000 m above mean sea level in the eastern Tibetan Plateau during the summers of 1980–2016 (units: °C/decade; solid black lines represent the 2,000 m and 3,000 m height above mean sea level; the solid points indicate significant differences above the 95% confidence level). At its elevation of 3,656 meters, Lhasa is one of the highest cities in the world, yet has over 3,000 hours of sunshine every year. However, it is still possible to visit Mount Everest, which is even more amazing with a little snow on the ground. Some issues still do not involve. However, comparisons with the period of 1980–1994 and 1998–2016 (Figures 5A1–A4, B1–B4) show that the TPST–SCSSMP relationship changes, when the shift start around 1996. According to the thermal adaptation, the TP heating will result in a shallow cyclonic circulation at low-level and a deep anticyclonic circulation at high-level, which is consistent with the significant anticyclonic anomaly at 200 hPa (Figure 8). The spatial pattern of this regression (TPST–wind field) is very similar to the regression pattern of TPST–SCSSMP from 1980 to 1994, which further confirms that changes in TPST deeply affect SCSSMP. Temperatures are also starting to drop, as the summer ends and the cooler weather takes over. It is means that significant convection is likely to occur in the region during the latter period (Figure 10b), which also means that it is favorable for moisture convergence here. Why April to May and September to October are the Best Seasons to Visit Everest Base Camp. In the later period, a wave–like structure in the low–latitude moves easterly along the low–level monsoon and a strong cyclonic circulation exists in the South China Sea, which is consistent with the negative correlation between the TPST–OLR. Once the monsoon season is over, there is very little chance of rain in Shigatse throughout the winter months, and from December to the end of February the land is cold and dry, with strong biting winds. The Vertically–integrated moisture flux (VIMF) is calculated using the monthly variables of specific humidity, sea–level pressure, meridional wind (v), zonal wind (u), and air temperatures data, which is integrated from low–level (1000 hPa) to mid–level (500 hPa). Articles, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, China, Institute of Atmospheric Physics (CAS), China. Change 114, 527-547. doi: 10.1007/s10584-012-0419-3, Seidel, D., and Free, M. (2003). Revisiting Asian monsoon formation and change associated with Tibetan Plateau forcing II. Then, future CCSM4 projections under high and low emission scenarios were downscaled and compared with CCSM4 projections. Front. 8:583466. doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2020.583466. Z. Hence, the area where the averaged altitude above 3,000 m is already masked. In the subsequent analyses, we therefore use GPCP precipitation data to examine the changeable TPST–SCSSMP relationship. J Geophys Res. After selecting three variables, it should begin to consider remove the insignificant predictor among them. The temperature anomalies are ~-0.37°C to −0.46°C during 1980–1994, but increase up to 0.29°C to 0.37°C during 1998–2016 (P < 0.05). Atmos. How about the summer in Tibet? 134, 1287-1299. doi: 10.1007/s00704-017-2341-0, Xu, X. D., Lu, C. G., and Shi, X. H. (2010). (2003). An earlier version, ERA–Interim (Berrisford et al., 2011), is also used for comparisons. 64, 1140-1143. doi: 10.1016/j.scib.2019.06.023, Giorgi, F., Hurrel, J., Marinucci, M., and Beniston, M. (1997). Global warming shifts the monsoon circulation, drying South Asia. While you may not be able to trek in Ngari in January, you are able to do so in Lhasa and Nyingchi, where the weather is milder. (A,B) Based on JRA55; (C,D) based on ERA5; and (E,F) based on ERA–Interim. Temperatures in Tsedang can be warmer than that of Lhasa, with summer highs of around 23 degrees during the day, and only dropping to around 9-10 degrees at night. But rest assured, you can visit any time you like. Xu, X. D., Zhao, T., and Shi, X. Beijing: Science Press. The increase in water–vapor convergence and more favorable convection conditions lead to more precipitation in the region after the late 1990s. Res. According to this method, we then select the factors of TPST and global warming as the second and third predictors. Lake Namtso, on the border of Lhasa and Nagqu, is the coldest location, on average, with an average temperature below -11 degrees and daytime temperatures that remain below freezing throughout the month. 17, 2780–2793. The wind structure and heat balance in the lower troposphere over Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding, Acta Meteorol. Hence, the TPST warming is conducive to convection over the South China Sea to increase the low–level moisture and precipitation, and thus there is a positive relationship between the TPST and precipitation in the late 1990s. J. Geo. (2008) conducted the numerical experiments with atmospheric general circulation models by changing the albedo and showed that atmospheric heating would be enhanced after the TP temperatures rising. P < 0.01 indicates a significant difference above the 99% confidence level. Red solid line represents the Tibetan Plateau. Role of the Tibetan Plateau thermal forcing in the summer climate patterns over subtropical Asia. The surface air temperature change over the Tibetan Plateau is determined based on historical observations from 1980 to 2013. 30:2066. doi: 10.1029/2003GL017909, Kobayashi, C., and Iwasaki, T. (2016). Tsedang has mild wet summers and dry mild winters. Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world. Tibetan Plateau warming and precipitation changes in East Asia. Figure 6. The amount of water vapor is mainly concentrated from surface to 500 hPa (Strong et al., 2002). Ocean 40, 113-124. doi: 10.3137/ao.400203, Su, J., Duan, A., and Xu, H. (2017). Weakening trend in the atmospheric heat source over the Tibetan Plateau during recent decades, Part I: Observations. This spatial pattern is fairly consistent with those results of Hsu and Liu (2003) and Wang et al. The ERA-Interim Archive Version 2.0. In this study, we confirm they results again by using the different reanalysis datasets. Surface energy budget diagnosis reveals possible mechanism for the different warming rate among Earth's three poles in recent decades. doi: 10.1002/asl.732, Wang, B., Qing, B., and Hoskins, B. 28, 7093-7107. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00783.1, Stanley, S. (2017). Datasets and methods are described in section 2. The stepwise regression is a widely–used method for fitting regression models. And its climatic condition is moderate. In contrast to the cooling trend in the rest of China, and the global warming hiatus post-1990s, an accelerated warming trend has appeared over the Tibetan Plateau during 1998-2013 (0.25 °C decade(-1)), compared with that during 1980-1997 (0.21 °C decade(-1)). Conversely, it is the winter months from December and January that get the most sunshine, with between 24 and 26 sunny days a month. In this study, it is quite reasonable that sites with an elevation higher than 2,000 m are selected, and we think an altitude of 2,000 m is still higher than the surrounding area and also representative. Sci. The climate in Tibet belongs to the typical high-altitude plateau climate. Sci. The purple area (27–40°N, 90–105°E) is selected as the research region for JRA55, ERA5 and ERA-Interim reanalysis temperature data at 2 m. To test the reliability of the reanalysis data in reflecting the TPST change, we compare it with the station data at the same region (eastern Tibetan Plateau; purple box in Figure 1). The lower precipitation in southwestern China is more obvious over the North China Plain. Figure 9. 73, 20-35. The process finally terminates when no additional available variable can be removed or added to this model (Efroymson, 1960; Draper and Smith, 1981). The summer months, from June to August, are often too wet to make this trip, and in winter, from December to March, it is too cold, with high passes often being blocked by snow. Dyn. This is mainly due to the valley location of the city, which helps to protect it from the intense cold or heat and the strong winds. (2008). (2003). Climatic change in mountain regions: a review of possible impacts. 52, 1679–1693. 20, 1729-1742. doi: 10.1002/1097-0088(20001130)20.14<1729. Sci. Atmos. At 200 hPa, the South China Sea is dominated by the northerly wind, and the TPST is also negative correlated with the wind field (Figures 8A–E). Owing to such extremities of climate, the Changtang region is one of the most sparsely populated regions of Asia. The present results suggest that, in a changing climate, we should be cautious when using predictor with interdecadal variations. This means that over the past 50 years the temperature has increased by 1.3 degrees Celsius, … Zhao, S. R., Song, Z. S., and Ji, L. R. (2003). During 1980–1994, the anticyclone exists over the South China Sea is not conducive to convection (Figure 10a) and water vapor cannot gather there (Figures 9A–E), and therefore less precipitation occurs over the South China Sea. Wu and Liu (2000) furtherly developed the thermal adaptation theory (a prescribed deep/shallow convective-type heating). Zhou, X. J., Zhao, P., and Chen, J. M. (2009). Decadal change of the spring snow depth over the Tibetan Plateau: the associated circulation and influence on the East Asian summer monsoon. J. Shading indicates significant differences above the 90% confidence level based on the Student's t–test. How should we select the predictive variables and construct a complete and realistic regression model? can also show the influences of the decadal variation of TPST on other elements. Int. As the leaves turn brown and fall to the ground, the region becomes a multi-colored wonderland. However, the temperature difference between day and night can be drastic. Section 4 examines the influence of the interdecadal variation of the TPST on atmospheric circulation. But none of the added variables and regression equation is significantly when each of variable is added, which means that PDO, ENSO, and AMO are not important predictors. Comparison of lower-tropospheric temperature climatologies and trends at low and high elevation radiosonde sites. doi: 10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:TVGPCP>2.0.CO;2, Annamalai, H., Hafner, J., Sooraj, K. P., and Pillai P. (2013). Appl. According to the CTA, unfortunately, the Tibetan plateau has seen an increase in temperature of approximately 0.3 degrees Celsius in every decade. Winter is definitely out for traveling to Ngari Prefecture, the weather is always inclement, and roads can often be blocked by snowfall. Sci. 27, 2682-2698. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00015.1, Gao, K. L., Duan, A., De, M., Chen, G., and Wu, X. The relationship between water vapor transport features of Tibetan Plateau-monsoon “large triangle” affecting region and drought-flood abnormality of China (in Chinese). Famous for the peach blossoms that bloom on the thousands of trees across the prefecture every April, Nyingchi is one of the lowest places on the Tibetan plateau, with an average elevation of around 3,000 meters. We also determine to identify whether the change relationship exist in other season (spring (MAM), summer (JJA), fall (SON), winter (DJF) by calculating the standard partial regression coefficients of TPST–SCSSMP during 1980–1994 and 1998–2016. Part 507 II: possible causes. Persistent weakening trend in the spring sensible heat source over the Tibetan Plateau and its impact on the Asian summer monsoon, Clim. Sin. We therefore consider that Tibetan Plateau temperature changes in the summer season are mainly responsible for those in the circulation and rainfall patterns in downstream regions. (A,B) Based on JRA55; (C,D) based on ERA5; and (E,F) based on ERA-Interim. Jpn. Sci. Variability of temperature in the Tibetan Plateau based on homogenized surface stations and reanalysis data May 2013 International Journal of Climatology 33(6):1337-1347 Climatic change at high elevation sites: an overview. Overall, global warming and interdecadal variability in climate systems, such as the WNPSH, ENSO, AMO, and PDO influence the change of summer rainfall in this area. Coefficient between the TPST on other elements around, the time series is separated into two,! Sensitivity of the Tibetan Plateau and its effects on water vapor is mainly concentrated from surface to 500 (! May to July reaching as high as 30 degrees G. D. ( 2005 ) weather..., S. Y., Li, T. ( 2016 ) whose comments allowed us to improve the manuscript substantially activity! Place to visit Mount Everest, the Changtang region is one of the Tibetan Plateau and SCSSMP is as. 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